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  3. The second area I want to focus on is what we know we do not know. In other words, the uncertainties related to the further open

The second area I want to focus on is what we know we do not know. In other words, the uncertainties related to the further open

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问题     The second area I want to focus on is what we know we do not know. In other words, the uncertainties related to the further opening of China’s market. //
    Clearly, we do not know exactly how numerous industries will evolve. And it is a lack of advanced knowledge that is prompting much speculation. In the area of financial services for example, some predict that many of China’s domestic banks will have a limited life span once the market is fully opened up in five years time. //
    Personally, I do not share this view. I think they will be very strong competitors, partly because they are in the advantageous position of knowing the marketplace, partly because they have national networks that are impossible—not to mention impractical—to match. And partly because they have a strong base of customers and are becoming increasingly modern Consider the mainland’s largest bank, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. It recently announced that it has more than l0,000 corporations and 1.8 million individuals using its online banking services. But the main reason I think domestic banks in China will be strong competitors: they are very fast learners. //
    Another thing we know we do not know—and this specifically relates to Hong Kong-is the indirect benefits that will flow from a more open market in China. For example, if mainland investors are allowed to invest their foreign exchange holdings in Hong Kong, the SAR’s stock market would clearly benefit. Hong Kong’s position as a fund raising centre for mainland companies would also be enhanced. We know this idea is under consideration. We also know we do not know when it may happen. //
    Likewise, we know that if banks in Hong Kong are permitted to accept RMB deposits, the SAR’s status as an international financial centre and as the premier regional financial centre will be enhanced even further. Once again we know this idea is being considered, but we do not know when it may happen. //
    Finally, we know that we do not know how China will change the WTO. What role will the country play in shaping future trade talks? Will China’s presence prompt other members to address the concerns of developing nations more readily? And how will another large player at the table affect overall group dynamics?//
    One thing that is clear: the WTO is much more of a global body now than it was prior to China’s entry. Simply put, no organization can rightly call itself global if it does not include the world’s most populous nation. //
    (Excerpts from "China and the WTO: the 15-year Itch" by Mr. David Eldon, Chairman of Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, at Hong Kong Association of New York breakfast meeting on April 25, 2002)
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答案 我想说的第二部分是我们知道自己不了解的东西。换句话说，就是有关中国市场进一步开放的不确定因素。 很明显，我们不知道这么多行业到底会怎样发展。由于对事情缺乏深入的了解而导致许多揣测。比如，在金融服务方面，有些人预测，一旦市场在五年后完全开放，许多中资银行就会陆续关门。 我个人不同意这种看法。我认为这些中资银行将会是非常强劲的竞争对手。一部分是因为它们了解市场，处于有利地位。另一部分原因是它们有遍布全国的网络，这一点是外资银行根本无法匹敌的，真想比拼的话也不切实际。还有一部分原因是它们拥有强大的客户基础，并且正在逐步走向现代化。比如中国内地最大的银行——中国工商银行，最近这家银行宣布有超过一万家企业和一百八十万的个人在使用其网上银行的服务。然而我认为中资银行将成为强劲竞争对手的主要原因是：它们学习的速度非常快。// 另一件我们知道自己不了解的事和香港有很大的关系，那就是从更加开放的中国市场获得的间接利益。好比说，如果内地的投资者获准在香港投资外汇股票，香港特别行政区的股票市场肯定会得刮好处。香港作为内地公司募集资金的中心，地位也会提高我们知道这一想法正在考虑之中。我们也知道我们不了解这种情况什么时候会发生。// 同样地，我们知道如果香港的银行获准接受人民币存款，香港特别行政区作为国际金融中心和主要的区域金融中心，它的地位将会进一步得到提高。我们也知道这一想法正在考虑之中，但是我们不知道这种情况什么时候会发生。// 最后，我们知道我们不了解中国将会怎样改变世贸组织。中国在未来的贸易谈判中会扮演什么样的角色?中国的加入是否会使其他成员国更愿意关注发展中国家的问题?谈判桌上的又一个大玩家会对整个组织的格局产生什么样的影响?// 但有一点是非常清楚的：现在的世贸组织比中国加入之前更像一个全球性的组织。简单地说，如果不包括这个世界上拥有最多人口的国家，没有一个组织可以问心无愧地说自己是全球性的组织。// (节选自香港上海汇丰银行有限公司主席艾尔敦先生于2002年4月25日在纽约香港协会早餐会上的演讲“中国与WTO：十五年的渴望”)
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