2. 考研
  3. (16) . Three centre on the United States. A fourth relates to China, and the fifth is that oil prices could rise to over $ 70 p

(16) . Three centre on the United States. A fourth relates to China, and the fifth is that oil prices could rise to over $ 70 p

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问题      (16)  . Three centre on the United States. A fourth relates to China, and the fifth is that oil prices could rise to over $ 70 per barrel even without a major political or terrorist disruption and much higher with one.
   Most of these risks reinforce each other. A further oil shock, a dollar collapse and a soaring American budget deficit would all generate much higher inflation and interest rates.  (17)   Larger budget deficits will produce larger American trade deficits, and thus more protectionism and dollar vulnerability. Realization of any one of the five risks could substantially reduce world growth. If two or three, let alone all five, were to occur in combination then they would radically reverse the global outlook.
     (18)   . It has already reached an annual rate of $ 870 billion, well above 7% of the economy. It is expected that the deficit would exceed trillion per year by 2010.
   There are three reasons for this dismal prospect. First, American merchandise imports are now almost twice as large as exports; hence exports would have to grow twice as fast as imports merely to halt the deterioration. Second, economic growth is likely to remain faster in America than in its major markets and higher incomes there increase demand for imports much faster than income growth elsewhere increases demand for American exports. Third,  (19)  
   Fears of a hard landing for the dollar and the world economy are of course not new. The situation is much more ominous today, however, because of the record current—account deficits and international debt, and the high probability of further rapid increases in both.  (20)  , which were associated with stagflation, rather than the 1980s when a sharp fall in energy costs and inflation cushioned dollar depreciation (but still produced higher interest rates and Black Monday for the stock market).
A. America’s large debtor position means that its net investment income payments to foreigners will escalate steadily, especially as interest rates rise.
B. A sharp dollar decline would increase the likelihood of further oil price rises.
C. The potential escalation of oil prices suggests a parallel with the dollar declines of the 1970s.
D. The most alarming new prospect is another sharp deterioration in America’s current account deficit.
E. Five major risks threaten the world economy.
选项
答案A
解析 本段提到了美国财政赤字的三个原因，一是商品的进口高于出口；二是美国经济增长很快，更高的收入会刺激进口比较多，刺激出口少。因此第三个原因应是出口少了，还贷款就会减少，故选A。
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