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  3. In recent years there has been much talk of a "renaissance" in American manufacturing. A few things seemed to be on the side of

In recent years there has been much talk of a "renaissance" in American manufacturing. A few things seemed to be on the side of

admin2015-07-05  53
问题     In recent years there has been much talk of a "renaissance" in American manufacturing. A few things seemed to be on the side of the makers. For instance, until recently the dollar was weak. American wages were stagnant, but those in China were booming. Cheap shale oil and gas gave factories a boost. But as we argued recently, talking of a renaissance is overblown. And new figures, released today, add to the mounting pile of evidence saying that manufacturing growth is starting to slow.
    We argued before that although there has been a recovery in American manufacturing in recent years, it is not a sustainable one. Employment in the sector is still lower than before the crash. So is one important measure of output: real value added. In short, America has not got better at producing stuff.
    Also, much of the recovery in American manufacturing seems to be based on a cyclical boom in "durable" goods—things that you expect to last a long time, like cars and fridges. During the recession, orders for durable goods plunged. That’s because it is quite easy to put off such purchases. By contrast, it is more difficult to put off purchases of non-durable goods, like medicines, because people tend to consume them more frequently.
    After the recession, production of durable goods soared. Cheap credit, for instance, spurred demand for new motors and rapid growth in carmaking. That sector accounted for over a third of the durable growth from 2009 to 2013. Yet a recovery based on a few durables industries is unsustainable. This is because when pent-up demand is satisfied, a few big industries will suffer. Overall output is likely to stall.
    New data confirm this prediction. Orders for durable goods fell by 1.4% in February. Motor-vehicle orders fell by 0. 5% . It is possible that the recent bad weather has had an effect here. But it may be a sign of something more troubling. As economists at Capital Economics, a consultancy, argue, " The more general malaise started back in the autumn of last year. Indeed, core orders have now fallen in every month since last October. "
    In recent months, non-durable goods have also fallen quite rapidly. What explains all this? The obvious culprit is the strong dollar, because it makes manufacturing exports (which account for roughly half of America’s total) more expensive. Alternatively, it may be because consumers are starting to pull back on spending. In January, consumer credit grew at the slowest pace in over a year, according to recent data from the Federal Reserve. In recent months consumer confidence has dropped a bit. And companies may not be so confident, either, and are thus not in the mood to add to capital stock, says Steven Ricchiuto of Mizuho Securities, an investment bank. This does not bode well for American manufacturing or, indeed, for economic growth overall.
In what sense "durable" goods cannot boost sustainable economic growth?
选项 A、They are not fast-consumed daily necessities.
B、They tend to be influenced by banking policy.
C、Orders for them are easily to be cancelled.
D、Industries of them may be less sustainable.
答案A
解析 推理判断题。从定位句可以看出，作者之所以认为基于“耐用品”增长的经济复苏不持久是基于这类商品自身的特点：一是可长时间使用，不用经常购买；二是不是每天都必须使用，故答案为A)。B)“它们易于受到银行政策的影响”，文章虽然在末段提到信贷，但并没有说“耐用品”与银行政策有关，故排除；C)“它们的订单很容易被取消”，文章第三段第四句提到这类商品的订单容易被推迟，而不是被取消，故排除；D)“生产这些商品的产业可持续性较差”，第四段第四句提到，基于几个耐用品行业的恢复是不可持续的，对于产业本身的可持续性，作者并没有提及，故排除。
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