2. 外语
  3. 下面你将听到的是一段有关国际局势的讲话。 In the wake of the Cold War, the world has experienced a time when there is only one superpower and the

下面你将听到的是一段有关国际局势的讲话。 In the wake of the Cold War, the world has experienced a time when there is only one superpower and the

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问题 下面你将听到的是一段有关国际局势的讲话。
    In the wake of the Cold War, the world has experienced a time when there is only one superpower and therefore, no balance of power. Will this situation persist for a long time? Well, the answer to that depends on whether you’re an optimist or a pessimist, and on the possibility of subsuming power politics within a constitutional world order shaped by the mono-cultural global ideology.
    For the foreseeable future, though, a third world war seems unlikely; because there is no major ideological fracture severe enough to sustain it. War itself won’t disappear, and occasional regional armed conflicts flare up.
    Though a world war is less likely for the present, I worry about the proliferation of nuclear weapons and lethal bio-chemical arms. It is terrifying to see the way that power is increasingly disseminated to small, completely ruthless groups like terrorists, drug traffickers and local warlords. The great imponderable is that some nuts could create a nuclear explosion, or that some essentially local conflict could escalate out of control. The huge economic imbalance in the world will also result in serious disasters. The fact that the richest 20 percent have 86 percent of global GDP, and the 20 poorest countries only 1 percent constitutes a destabilizing factor that will harm world peace.
    There are people who anticipate a more progressive path, sometimes called "the new medievalism", in which the relentless advance of information technology results in the demise of the state as we know it. The idea is that global communications will simultaneously empower individuals to create transnational virtual communities and make it more difficult for governments to control their populations. The result will be a new political landscape with overlapping jurisdictions in place of territorial states with distinct jurisdictions.
    Again, I’m skeptical myself. We can’t ultimately exist as virtual communities; we all have to live somewhere and pay our taxes. The resurgence of nationalism argues against this model in any case. In the first half of the 20th century many believed that nationalism would give way to a world organized on liberal principles; some even believed in world government. But today the pressure is in the opposite direction, towards ethnic separatism at an accelerating speed.
    Since the end of the Cold War, much of the attention focused on nuclear and strategic issues has drained away to a dangerous extent in fact. Weapons of mass destruction have increased, and the international political and military balance has now been seriously undermined by the nuclear tests in countries and regions that have lost grip on them.
    A stronger and more efficient United Nations that allows for diversified values, therefore, has been asked for to maintain a check-and-balance pattern of the world political structure.
    As regards the balance of power in the future, well, the one thing that we can be sure about is that our job is not to predict the future but to improve the .understanding of this diversified world we live in. On that front at least, we’re optimistic about improvement and progress .
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答案 冷战以后世界上仅有一个超级大国，势力均衡因此也就不存在了。这种状况是否会持续很久呢?答案取决于你是乐观主义者，还是悲观主义者。还取决于强权政治是否会被纳入受全球单一文化观念影响的某种立宪制世界秩序中。 不过，在可预见的未来，第三次世界大战似乎不太可能发生，因为不存在严重到足以引发世界大战的意识形态上的重大分歧。战争本身不可能销声匿迹，局部武装冲突时有爆发。 虽然目前发生世界大战的可能性更小了，不过我担心核武器扩散，担心致命性生化武器的扩散。可怕的是，越来越多的杀人武器流散到像恐怖主义分子、毒品贩子和地方军阀这样毫无人性的小团伙手里。最无法估计的事是某些疯子会制造一场核爆炸，或者地方性的冲突会升级到无法控制的地步。世界经济严重失衡也会带来严重的后果，占世界人口20％的最富的国家拥有全球国内生产总值的86％，而最穷的20个国家仅拥有全球国内生产总值的1％，这也是影响世界和平的不稳定因素。 另一些人预见到一条更具有进化性的道路，这条道路有时被称为“新中世纪主义”。根据这一理论，信息技术的持续进步将导致我们现有概念中的国家最终灭亡。这种观点认为，全球性通讯传播将同时赋予个人创建跨国虚拟社区的能力，使各国政府难以控制其人民。其结果是一种政治新格局的形成，相互重叠的管辖体系将取代管辖权界线分明的领土型国家。 对此我同样表示怀疑。我们最终是不能以虚拟社区的形式存在：我们都得生活在某个地方并且纳税。民族主义的再度兴起实际上是对这种模式否定。20世纪上半叶，许多人相信民族主义会让位于一个根据自由主义原则组建的世界；有些人甚至相信会有世界政府。可是如今的趋势是朝相反方向，朝着民族分离主义的方向进一步发展。 冷战结束以来，对核武器和战略问题的关注已逐渐减少到十分危险的程度。大规模杀伤性武器的数量在不断上升，而一些国家和地区所进行的几近失控的核试验严重威胁着世界的政治军事平衡。 人们期待出现一个更为强大、更有效率、价值多元的联合国，对世界政治格局起到制约和平衡的作用。 至于未来势力均衡的问题，有一点可以肯定，我们的任务不是预测未来，而是增进对我们所居住的这个多样性世界的理解。至少在这一方面，我们对其发展与进步持乐观态度。
解析     本文是一篇关于国际局势的讲话。文中除讲述了当今世界的整体局势外，还讲述了威胁世界和平和安全的因素，包括武器扩散、恐怖主义、经济严重失衡等，并阐述了其中的原因。最后，文中指出主要依托联合国，对应对这些威胁提出了看法。
    本文要求应试者掌握一定的国际政治局势的常识，熟悉相关的专门词汇和表达方式，这依赖于应试者平时的知识积累，是翻译的基本要求。此外，应试者还需要在短时间内，对长难句进行正确的理解、分析、简化或切分，把握两种语言各自特色，完成双语间的转换；对于一些较为生僻的短语和表达法，不能死译、硬译，而应该充分联系上下文灵活变通，使译文通顺流畅。
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