2. 外语
  3. This passage is excerpted from material published in 1997. Scientists have been puzzled by the seeming disparity between models

This passage is excerpted from material published in 1997. Scientists have been puzzled by the seeming disparity between models

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问题 This passage is excerpted from material published in 1997.
Scientists have been puzzled by the seeming disparity between models of global warming based on greenhouse gas emissions and actual climatological data. In short, the world is not warming up as much as these models have predicted. In the early 1990s, Pat Michaels sought to explain this disparity, suggesting that sulfate emissions in industrial areas had a cooling effect, thus temporarily retarding global warming. Michaels later came to doubt this idea, however, pointing out that since most sulfate is emitted in the Northern Hemisphere, its cooling influence should be largely limited to that hemisphere. Yet, since 1987, warming in the Southern Hemisphere, which had been relatively intense, has virtually ceased, while warming in the north has accelerated. Thus, Michaels not only doubted the idea of sulfate cooling, but came to feel that global warming models themselves may be flawed.
Ben Santer disagrees. Santer contends that, in general, global warming occurs more slowly in the south because this hemisphere is dominated by oceans, which warm more slowly than the landmasses that dominate the Northern Hemisphere. But, according to Santer, the situation remains complicated by sulfate cooling, which peaked in the north in the mid-twentieth century. It drastically slowed warming in the Northern Hemisphere, and warming in the Southern Hemisphere raced ahead. Since 1987, Santer argues, the greenhouse effect has reasserted itself, and the north has taken the lead. Thus, Santer disputes Michaels’s claim that model predictions and observed data differ fundamentally.
The passage suggests that Santer and Michaels would be most likely to DISAGREE over which of the following issues?
选项 A、Whether climatological data invalidates global warming models
B、Whether warming in the Northern Hemisphere has intensified since 1987
C、Whether disparities between global warming models and climatological data can be detected
D、Whether landmasses warm more rapidly than oceans
E、Whether oceans have a significant effect on global climate patterns
答案A
解析 Inference
According to the end of the first paragraph, Michaels began to doubt that sulfate cooling had an effect on global warming, and, further, based on the fact that he could not find an answer for why climatological data did not line up with global warming models, he questioned the accuracy of those models. The second paragraph explains that Santer, in contrast, offered a more nuanced explanation for the effect of sulfate cooling, and that based on this explanation, he disputed the claim that climatological data were inconsistent with the models’ predictions.
A Correct. Based on the passage, Santer and Michaels would clearly disagree about whether climatological data invalidate global warming models: Michaels came to question the models on the basis of those data, while Santer found the model predictions were in fact ultimately consistent with the observed data.
B Both Santer and Michaels accept the idea that warming in the north has accelerated since 1987.
C Santer and Michaels both offered reasons for why the seeming disparity between models and data occurred—thus they agreed that such disparities were in fact detected.
D According to the second paragraph, Santer holds that landmasses warm more rapidly than oceans. But the passage offers no indication that Michaels disagrees with this.
E Santer s argument is based in large part on the effect of oceans on global climate patterns, but nothing in the passage’s discussion of Michaels s work indicates that Michaels would disagree that oceans have such an effect.
The correct answer is A.
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