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  3. A Different Consensus Even as the U.S. Senate debates a vast new tax and spend regime in the name of fighting climate change

A Different Consensus Even as the U.S. Senate debates a vast new tax and spend regime in the name of fighting climate change

admin2010-01-14  31
问题                            A Different Consensus
    Even as the U.S. Senate debates a vast new tax and spend regime in the name of fighting climate change, a more instructive argument was taking place in Copenhagen, Denmark. Some of the world’s leading economists met earlier this month to decide how to do the most good in a world of finite resources.
    Scarcity is a core economic concept. There isn’t an unlimited amount of money to be spent on every problem, so choices have to be made. The question addressed by the Copenhagen Consensus Center is what investments would do the most good for the most people. The center’s blue-ribbon panel of economists, including five Nobel laureates, weighed more than 40 proposals to improve the world by spending a total of $75 billion over the next four years.
    What would do the most good most economically? Supplements of vitamin A and zinc for malnourished children.
    Number two? A successful outcome to the Doha Round of global flee-trade talks.
    Global warming mitigation? It ranked 30th, or last, right behind global warming mitigation research and development.
    On the benefits of freer trade, it was estimated that a successful Doha Round could generate up to $113 trillion in new wealth during the 21st century, at a cost of $420 billion or less from inefficient industries going bust.
    Meanwhile, providing vitamin A and zinc would help some 112 million children in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia for merely $60 million a year. The minerals would help prevent blindness and stunted growth—increasing lifetime productivity by an estimated $1 billion. Similar if not quite so bountiful returns apply to investments in iron supplements, salt iodization and deworming, all low-cost measures that the economists in Copenhagen ranked highly.
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答案 不一样的共识 就在美国参议院讨论一个庞大的新税收和支出制度以应对气候变化时，丹麦的哥本哈根提出了一个更具指导意义的论点。一些世界顶级的经济学家在本月早些时候碰头，以确定如何最好地运用有限的资源。 “短缺”是经济学的核心概念。没有无限量的资金用于解决每个问题，关键是选择。哥本哈根共识中心指出，问题在于投入的资金如何能满足最多人的最大需求。中心那些拥有最高荣誉的经济学专家们(其中包括五位诺贝尔奖获得者)对四十多个改善全球的提议做出评估，并将在未来4年内投入750亿美元落实这些提议。 最好的、最经济的方法是什么? 给营养不良的孩子补充维生素A和锌。 第二种呢? 多哈回合全球自由贸易谈判获得成功。 缓解全球变暖?位列第30，也就是最末一位，它的前一位是缓解全球变暖的研究和开发。 关于自由贸易所能带来的收益，据估计，多哈回合谈判成功能够在21世纪带来高达113万亿美元的财富增长，代价只是价值4200亿美元或更少的运转不良的行业走向末路。 同时，每年仅需6000万美元就能为撒哈拉以南非洲和南亚地区的约1.12亿儿童提供维生素A和锌。矿物质有助于预防失明和发育障碍，增加的终生生产力寿命估计为10亿美元。即使铁补充剂、食盐加碘和驱虫等所有被哥本哈根的经济学家们排在靠前位置的低成本的措施的投资回报没有这么丰厚，也相差不多。
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