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  3. Four Dangers to the Euro Operating a single currency is not going to be easy. European economic and monetary union will not

Four Dangers to the Euro Operating a single currency is not going to be easy. European economic and monetary union will not

admin2012-11-22  63
问题                      Four Dangers to the Euro
    Operating a single currency is not going to be easy. European economic and monetary union will not function without any difficulties. Indeed, signs of stress have already appeared. And these political, economic and social pressures will almost certainly intensify in the years to come. But EMU (经济贷币联盟) failure is a topic generally avoided in continental Europe. And for good reason the collapse    of monetary union would almost certainly slam the European Union into political chaos and the world into financial crisis. "It would be almost as bad as a war in Europe," says Use Angenentdt, chief economist at BHF Bank in Frankfurt. The optimists contend EMU failure is not possible. They insist that the politicians will in Europe for monetary union be simply too strong to allow it to fail. But they overlook a simple fact: European politicians invented monetary union, and therefore they can destroy it. Some think the chances of EMU disintegration are highest before Euro notes and coins go into circulation Jan. 1, 2002. Others say, no, it would take more time for pressures to reach the explosive levels necessary to burst apart EMU. Whoever is right, here are a few of EMU’ s weak points.
    One Size Does Not Fit All
    The prime requirement for EMU (one key interest rate for all 11 nations regardless of divergent economic cycles) is potentially its most dangerous fault line. The European Central Bank has said it will set its key interest rate at a level for average Euroland economic conditions.
    You don’ t have to be a chief economist to figure out that the fight key interest rate for the majority of Euroland, expected to grow at just over 2 percent next year, will not be right for Ireland, seen growing nearly 7 percent. The only way for Ireland to adjust would be through tough fiscal (财政的) tightening. An even bigger problem will come when most of Euroland is humming along with solid growth, but, say, Ireland and Portugal are sliding into recession after their booms have gone bust. The two nations would suffocate under the key interest rate and would not be able to devalue currencies as in the past. Fiscal stimulus also would be tricky because of the treaty that penalized countries who let their deficits(赤字) balloon.
    Money to Burn
    Another big fear is that Euroland nations, after years of fiscal penny saving to gain entry into EMU, will now go on wild spending. Some economists maintain that if only one or two nations overspend, peer pressure would quickly force them back to fiscal responsibility. The worst case would, be deficit spending by a majority of Euroland nations. And chances of this happening have grown after left-wing electoral victories in Germany and Italy, whose governments are now mare in line with the socialist government of France.
    Many Germans did not want the Club Mediterranean nations of Italy, Portugal and Spain to be allowed into club Euro. The fear of Italy, with its large economy and history of huge deficits and political instability, was especially intense.
    Adolf Rosenstock, economist at Nomura International in Frankfurt, thinks Italy could be the first nation to test EMU cohesiveness. "And this test might come sooner than we think. ", he warns.
    The Politicians vs. the Bankers
    While plenty of fault lines exist between nations, one huge crack is opening up between elected politicians and the bankers at ECB. Bad blood has already arisen between politicians and Euro central bankers. In response to the politicians’ demands for rate cuts, central bankers have (in essence) told them to keep quiet and work instead of cutting structural deficits and reforming labor markets. Gabriel Stein, senior international economist at Lombard Street Research in London, says that a tight ECB monetary policy might prompt politicians to turn to deficit spending in order to court the voters. This could tm into a bad cycle, with central bankers revenging by raising rates. "The politician might eventually say, ’We can’t work these guys, ’" Stein says. "Yes, the ECB is independent. But ultimate power rests with the politicians, who could control in an independent ECB with one flick of a revised    Maastricht Treaty."
    Germany Renounces the Faith
    Political critics often worry about the Club Med nations such as Italy leaving the Eurozones. But it’ s not incredible that a rich country might choose to leave. Take Germany. True, discontent among the German people over EMU would have to be overwhelming to persuade the country’ s leaders to opt out of the Euro. Being part of the single currency is at the very center of Franco-German efforts to keep the postwar agreement in place after Germany’s reunification. However, remember that Germany is giving up the mighty Deutsche Mark for EMU, and thus, arguably, has the most to lose. if the Euro turns out to be weak and budget deficits excessive, expect the Germans, still haunted by post-and inter-war crises, to start worrying about whether they should ever have joined EMU in the first place. And coming from the opposite viewpoint, some think Germany, despite its economic power, will find it more difficult to adapt to EMU than the Club Med nations. Per Hviid, deputy chief economist at Den Danske Bank in Copenhagen, says Germany’ s highly regulated and expensive labor market, high tax rates and generous spending programs will be trembling hard by EMU. "Of the EMU nations, Germany’s economy probably has the most structural problems," he says. Either way, Germany is the weather vane (风向标)to watch. And if it starts to swing against the Euro, for whatever mason, expect a stoma to follow.
Though it has a strong economy, it may be more difficult for Germany to ______.
选项
答案adapt to EMU than the Club Med nations
解析 查寻最后一部分关于德国经济情况的描述。德国放弃马克，选择欧元，损失很大。如果欧元证明很疲软，财政赤字持续，德国仍然为战后危机所困扰，他们会怀疑自己先加入欧盟是否正确。一些经济学家认为，尽管德国的经济能力强，与适应地中海国家俱乐部相比，将更难适应欧盟。哥本哈根的一个经济学家认为，德国高调节的、昂贵的劳动力市场，高税收，慷慨地支出项目都将举步维艰。德国经济存在严重的结构问题。
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