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  3. The summer’s most talked about working paper in economics is by Robert Gordon, and it is simply titled "Is US Economic Growth Ov

The summer’s most talked about working paper in economics is by Robert Gordon, and it is simply titled "Is US Economic Growth Ov

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问题     The summer’s most talked about working paper in economics is by Robert Gordon, and it is simply titled "Is US Economic Growth Over?" And well he might ask: GDP per capita, the most obvious measure of economic growth, is lower today than it was when the financial crisis began in 2007.
    The western world’s failure to recover from the crisis surely explains why Gordon’s gloomy thesis is getting so much attention, but, in fact, he takes great pains to avoid drawing conclusions from any short-term difficulties — even if the short term has now lasted more than half a decade. Gordon has been arguing since the days of the dotcom mania that the information revolution looks rather trivial compared with earlier waves of innovation, such as the internal combustion engine, indoor plumbing, electrification and the telephone —all of which took hold from about 1850 to 1900. This claim was plausible then and it’s plausible now.
    Let’s take this line of argument further. Economic growth is a modern invention; 20th-century growth rates were far higher than those in the 19th century, and pre-1750 growth rates were almost imperceptible by modern standards. Many have seen this as an encouraging trend, but Gordon draws a different lesson: growth is a recent phenomenon, so why assume that it will last? If Gordon is right to claim that modern inventions are less impressive than those of the late 19th century, we would expect to see slow growth in US real GDP per capita. And, indeed, growth has been slowing since the 1960s, even setting the current recession to one side.
    All these observations raise uncomfortable questions. But for some answers, we need to ponder the likely forces at play. Both Gordon and Tyler Cowen, author of The Great Stagnation, point out that some easy gains—such as sending children to secondary school or allowing women to have careers — can only be enjoyed once. Important inventions, too — such as the car, the washing machine and the lavatory — admit only gradual improvement after the first few decades. Demographics and debt accumulation have both speeded up growth in the past and, as the pendulum swings back, demographics and debt repayment will reduce it in the future. Then there are pure resource constraints.
    Despite all this, I remain an optimist. My inner contrarian also tells me to ignore Robert Gordon. During the dotcom boom I cited his work to anyone who would listen, but we are all stagnationists now. And yet: innovation won’t happen by magic. I argued in my last book, Adapt, that scientific and technical progress now seem to require larger teams, more cross-disciplinary work, more money, and older, more specialised scientists. It has become an organisational challenge that we are yet to take as seriously as we should. We’ve lived with astonishing economic growth for 250 years; perhaps we are starting to take this exciting companion for granted.
Gordon’s gloomy thesis is mainly based on______.
选项 A、a careful analysis of the current economic situation
B、an accurate comparison of GDP before and after the financial crisis
C、a comprehensive estimate of the economic prospect
D、a long-term observation of technology development
答案D
解析 第二段首先指出戈登极力避免从短期困境中得出结论。然后又指出，戈登通过将信息革命与先前的几波创新浪潮对比，得出结论：信息革命显得微不足道。由此可知，戈登的观点建立在对经济、技术的长期观察之上，[D]选项正确，其中long—term observation对应avoid…any short—term diffi—culties以及earlier waves of innovation…。
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