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  3. The global economy’s most striking feature nowadays is the magnitude and interconnectedness of the macro risks that it faces. Th

The global economy’s most striking feature nowadays is the magnitude and interconnectedness of the macro risks that it faces. Th

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问题     The global economy’s most striking feature nowadays is the magnitude and interconnectedness of the macro risks that it faces. The post-crisis period has produced a multi-speed world, as the major advanced economies—with the notable exception of Germany—struggle with low growth and high unemployment, while the main emerging-market economies have restored growth to pre-crisis levels.
    This divergence is mirrored in public finances. Emerging economies’ debt-to-GDP ratios are trending down toward 40%, while those of advanced economies are trending up toward 100%, on average. Neither Europe nor the United States has put in place credible medium-term plans to stabilize their fiscal positions. The volatility of the euro-dollar exchange rate reflects the uncertainty about which side of the Atlantic faces higher risks.
    In Europe, this has led to several ratings downgrades of the sovereign debt of the most distressed countries, accompanied by bouts of contagion spilling over to the euro. More seem likely.
    As for the US, Moody’s recently issued a warning on the country’s sovereign debt in the face of uncertainty about Congress’s willingness to raise the debt ceiling amid highly partisan debate about the deficit. Both issues—the debt ceiling and a credible deficit-reduction plan—remain unresolved.
    Moreover, economic growth in the US is modest, and appears to come mainly from segments of the tradable sector that are exposed to and benefit from emerging-market demand. The non-tradable sector, which created virtually all of the new employment in the two decades prior to the crisis, is stagnating, owing to a shortfall in domestic demand and seriously constrained government budgets. The result is persistent unemployment. Meanwhile, the tradable side is not large enough in competitive terms to take up the slack in growth and employment.
    By contrast, emerging markets’ rapid growth and urbanization are delivering a global investment boom, documented in a recent McKinsey Global Institute study. A likely consequence is that the cost of capital will rise in the next few years, putting pressure on highly leveraged entities, including governments that have grown accustomed to a low interest-rate environment and may not see this shift coming.
    Countries with persistent structural current-account deficits will incur additional external-financing costs, and eventually will reach the limits of leverage. At that point, the weak productivity and competitiveness of their tradable sectors will become clear.
    Adjustments will need to be made. The options are higher investment levels financed by domestic savings, productivity growth, and increased competitiveness, or stagnant real incomes as rebalancing occurs through the exchange-rate mechanism.
    Many of these structural problems were hidden from view before the crisis, thereby delaying both market and policy responses. In the US, excess domestic consumption, based on a debt-fueled asset bubble, helped to sustain employment and growth, though the current account held worrying signs. In several European countries, governments, aided by low interest rates, filled in the gap created by lagging productivity.
According to the author, which is true about tradable sector?
选项 A、It causes the increase in deficit of the United States.
B、It is totally exposed to and gains profit from emerging-market demand.
C、The stagnancy of it results in less domestic demand and limited budget.
D、It accounts for hardly no employment before the financial crisis.
答案D
解析 属事实细节题。通过题目中的tradable sector可迅速定位至文章第五段。选项A犯了移花接木的错误，美国的财政赤字出现在第四段，与贸易部门无关，故错误。选项B犯了夸大其词的错误，第五段第一句提到贸易部门的部分行业与新兴经济体需求直接相关且从中受益，而非全部，故错误。选项C犯了偷梁换柱的错误，第五段第二句意为“非贸易部门发展停滞由于内需不足和预算限制”，故错误。第五段中提到，在金融危机前，几乎全部的新就业机会均来自非贸易部门，故贸易部门几乎没有提供任何就业机会，所以选项D正确。
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