2. 外语
  3. In a recent article, mathematician Aczel argues convincingly that the number of planets suit able for life is extremely large. T

In a recent article, mathematician Aczel argues convincingly that the number of planets suit able for life is extremely large. T

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问题     In a recent article, mathematician Aczel argues convincingly that the number of planets suit able for life is extremely large. There are about 300 billion stars in our galaxy (银河系) and possibly 100 billion galaxies in the universe. Some may quarrel with Aczel’ s claim that as many as half of these stars can be presumed to have planets, and that on average one in nine of those planets is suitable for life; but few, I think, will disagree with his conclusion that there are a very large number of planets suitable for life.
    The trouble starts when we come to estimate the probability that life will emerge on any of these planets. The problem is that we don’ t have a good theory of the origin of life on earth. Without one, it is anybody’ s guess how likely this event actually was. Out of thin air Aczel conjures (想像) the figure of 1 in a trillion for this likelihood and concludes that the probability of life existing on at least one other planet is virtually 1.
    Statistics are extremely powerful and important, and Aczel is a very clear and capable exponent (倡导者) of them. But statistics cannot substitute for empirical (经验主义的) knowledge about the way the universe behaves.  We now have no reasonable way of arriving at robust estimates for the probability of life arising spontaneously when the conditions are right. So, until we either discover extraterrestrial (外星球的) life or understand far more about how at least one form of life--terrestrial life--first appeared, we can do little more than guess at the likely hood that life exists elsewhere in the universe. And as long as we’ re merely guessing, we should not dress up our interesting speculations as mathematical certainties.
Though challenged by many people, Aczel firmly believes that ______.
选项 A、about 1 million planets in our galaxy are suitable for life
B、it is very likely for life to exist on other planets
C、life exists in approximately 150 billion stars in our galaxy
D、there are a very large number of planets suitable for life
答案B
解析 细节题。题干问“尽管遭到质疑，Aczel仍然坚信的观点是什么”。根据第一段的描述进行简单的数学计算可知选项A和C均为误。根据第二段最后一句“Aczel conjures．．．and concludes that the probability of life existing on at least one other planet is virtually 1”可知 Aczel是坚信其他行星上肯定有生命存在的，但是根据第一段中Some may quarrel with Aczel’s claim that as many as half of these stars can be presumed to have planets叫知这一观点遭到了质疑，故选项B正确。选项D有一定的迷惑性，虽然它是Aczel坚信的观点，但是正如作者所说， few will disagree with his conclusion that there are a very large number of planets suitable for life，故选项D为误。答案为B。
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