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  3. 21. Every time you try to answer a question that asks why, you engage in the process of causal analysis--you attempt to determin

21. Every time you try to answer a question that asks why, you engage in the process of causal analysis--you attempt to determin

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问题     21. Every time you try to answer a question that asks why, you engage in the process of causal analysis--you attempt to determine a cause or series of causes for a particular effect. When you try to answer a question that what if, you attempt to determine what effect will result from a particular cause. You will have frequent opportunity to use cause- and-effect analysis in the writing that you will do in college. For example, in history you might be asked to determine the causes of the Seven Day War between Egypt and Israel. In political science you might be asked to determine the reasons why Ronald Reagan won the 1984 Presidential election. And in sociology you might be asked to predict the effect that changes in Social Security legislation would have on senior citizens.
    22. Determining causes and effects is usually thought-provoking and quite complex. One reason for this is that there are two types of causes: immediate causes, which are readily apparent because they are closest to the effect, and ultimate cause, which, being somewhat removed, are not so apparent and perhaps even hidden. Furthermore, ultimate causes may bring about effects which themselves become immediate causes, this creating a causal chain. For example, consider the following causal chain. Sally, a computer salesperson, prepared extensively for a meeting with an important client (ultimate cause), impressed the client (immediate cause), and made a very large sale (effect). The chain did not stop there: The large sale cause her to be promoted by her employer (effect).
    A second reason why causal analysis can be so complex is that an effect may have any number of possible or actual causes, and a cause may have any number of possible or actual effects. 23. An upset stomach may be caused by eating spoiled food, but it may also be caused by overeating, flu, allergy, nervousness, pregnancy, or any combination of factors. Similarly, the high cost of electricity may have multiple effects: higher profits for utility companies, fewer sales of electrical appliances, higher prices for other products, and the development of alternative sources of energy. Sound reasoning and logic are central to any causal analysis. Writers of believable causal analysis examine their material objectively and develop their essays carefully. They are convinced by their own examination of the material, but are not afraid to admit other possible causes and effects.
    Because people are accustomed to thinking of causes with their effects, they sometimes commit an error in logic known as the "after this, therefore because of this" fallacy. 24. This fallacy leads people to believe that because one event occurred after another event, the first event somehow caused the second. That is, they sometimes make causal connection that are not proved. For example, if students began to perform better after a free breakfast program was instituted at their school, one could not assume that the improvement was caused by the breakfast program. There could of course be any number of other causes for this effect, and a responsible writer on the subject would analyze and consider them all before suggesting the cause.
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答案这种谬论使人们认为，因为一件事发生在另一件事之后，因而第一件事以某种方式导致了第二件事的发生。也就是说，他们有时候会把没有证明的事物随意联系。例如，某学校实施一项免费早餐计划，在此之后，学生们的表现有了改善，我们不能由此认为这一改善是由．于那个免费早餐引起的。
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