A、How much it has improved in recent years. B、How reliable long-range forecasts are. C、How long it takes to become a meteorologi

W: We’d better be looking for sales on down jackets and thermo underwear. It’s going to be really cold this winter.
M: Well, you didn’t expect it to be warm, did you?
W: Of course not, but I just heard the national weather services prediction for the next 90 days. They said it’s supposed to be much colder a weather than usual. M: Yeah, maybe. Personally, I think those long-range forecasts are useless.
W: Not as useless as you think.
M: Oh, come on, when ’you’re talking about what’s going to happen three months later, you might as well just pick a forecast out of our hat.
W: Well, you are half way right, They aren’t very’ good for precipitation. But they are a lot better for temperatures, especially for this time of the year.
M: Really, so I should take them seriously about the cold but not count too much on a lot of extra snow?
W: Ahha.
M: But what did you say about this time of the year. Do some seasons really give them more problems in making forecast.
W: Autumn is the worse, apparently, weather patterns change so much then. Just think how variable our weather has been the last three month.
M: Come to think of it. That’s true. It probably would have been hard to predict all those changes back in the summer.  You know, you’re beginning to convince me there is more to forecasting than I thought, how come you know so much about it?
W: I get my information from an expert. My sister is a meterologist.