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  3. Europe, where the so-called population explosion got under way in the 18th century, is once again playing a pioneering role in d

Europe, where the so-called population explosion got under way in the 18th century, is once again playing a pioneering role in d

admin2012-05-28  444
问题     Europe, where the so-called population explosion got under way in the 18th century, is once again playing a pioneering role in demographic (人口的) development. The continent has the lowest fertility rate and the most elderly population in the world, and this population will soon start to shrink. All this makes it a front runner in a demographic trend that sooner or later will reach most of the world.
    Pioneers have to advance through difficult terrain. Economists are already worrying about the problem of how social security systems will cope when the post-war baby boomers start collecting their pensions in 2015. In hyper-ageing countries like Italy and Germany, where 1 in 7 people will be over 80 in 2050, it is unclear how a shrinking group of young people can generate the wealth needed to support the growing group of elderly citizens. Europe’s competitiveness could fall behind younger and growing populations in other world regions.
    On the face of it, fewer people seem like good news for the environment. The population of Germany, Europe’s most populous country, will shrink by at least 8 million by 2050 and this trend is set to be replicated in many of its neighbours. Remote rural areas, mainly in central and eastern Europe, might become depopulated over time. This should benefit biodiversity as displaced plant and animal species recolonise their old terrain. Given that the world population is still growing by about 200,000 people a day, and the ecological footprint of the human race already lies beyond the limits of sustainability, fewer European mega-consumers will be a blessing for the health of the planet.
    But look a little deeper, and the picture becomes more complicated. Decreasing population does not necessarily promise environmental benefits. The cost per head of population for infrastructure such as sewage systems (污水管道系统) or electricity supply increases when population numbers go down, making clean water and non-polluting energy even more expensive than they are today.
    So can Europe overcome its demographic and ecological challenges at the same time? The solution might be found in a rarely discussed concept: demographic sustainability.
    High population growth, such as that now taking place in many African countries, is not sustainable. But very low fertility rates are unsustainable too. It will be hard for countries with persistently low fertility to remain competitive, creative and wealthy enough to keep ahead of their country’s environmental challenges. What is needed is a middle ground.
    A demographically sustainable Europe needs to have a stable or slowly shrinking population as the existing infrastructure operates most efficiently when the number of inhabitants remains fairly constant. What would it take to achieve this? At present, the average fertility rate in Europe is 1.5 children per woman, and in countries below this line there is an urgent need for family policies to encourage women to have more children. Countries with fertility rates above 1.8, including France, the UK and Sweden, do not need further pro-birth policies as immigrations will fill the demographic gap.
From the economic perspective, what essential effect may the change of the population structure have on Europe’s countries?
选项 A、Many post-war baby boomers may collect their pensions.
B、The living condition of their residents may improve.
C、Most of their residents may enjoy the social welfare.
D、Their competitiveness may lag behind countries with younger and growing population.
答案D
解析 第二段提到，经济学家对欧洲人口状况担忧，文中最后一句指出，欧洲的竞争力可能落后于世界上那些拥有更多年轻人及人口保持增长的其他地区，故答案为[D]。[A]是将会出现的现象，并非人口结构变化带来的本质上的影响。
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