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  3. Could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return? Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil

Could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return? Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil

admin2017-08-15  79
问题     Could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return? Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December. This near-tripling of oil prices calls up scary memories of the 1973 oil shock, when prices quadrupled, and 1979—1980, when they also almost tripled. Both previous shocks resulted in double-digit inflation and global economic decline. So where are the headlines warning of gloom and doom this time?
    The oil price was given another push up this week when Iraq suspended oil exports. Strengthening economic growth, at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in the short term.
    Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the 1970s. In most countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the 1970s. In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price, so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.
    Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were, and so less sensitive to swings in the oil price. Energy conservation, a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensive industries have reduced oil consumption. Software, consultancy and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel or car production. For each dollar of GDP (in constant prices) rich economies now use nearly 50% less oil than in 1973. The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that, if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25%—0.5% of GDP. That is less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980. On the other hand, oil-importing emerging economies—to which heavy industry has shifted—have become more energy-intensive, and so could be more seriously squeezed.
    One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that, unlike the rises in the 1970s, it has not occurred against the background of general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand. A sizable portion of the world is only just emerging from economic decline. The Economist’s commodity price index is broadly unchanging from a year ago. In 1973 commodity prices jumped by 70%, and in 1979 by almost 30%.
From the text we can see that the writer seems ______.
选项 A、optimistic
B、sensitive
C、gloomy
D、scared
答案A
解析 从文章第1段的内容可知，可能要回到昔日经济衰退的日子吗?自从石油输出国组织达成削减供应的协议以来，原油的价格上涨了将近3倍，这使得人们回想起了以前的两次石油冲击，那次石油冲击导致了两位数的通货膨胀，并引发了全球性的经济衰退；那么，这次警告人们经济衰退的头条新闻在哪儿呢?从第2段的内容可知，油价这个星期因伊拉克停止石油出口又一次被抬升。由于经济快速增长，加上冬季对北半球的强大影响，因而油价在短时间内仍会上升。从第3段的内容可知，然而，人们有足够的理由预测现原油价格的上涨所引起的经济后果不会像70年代那样严重；即使原油价格发生很大的变动，对汽油价格的影响也比过去要小得多。第4段进一步说明了理由。从第5段的内容可知，不必担心油价上涨的另一个原因就是——此次油价上涨并不是发生在物价普遍暴涨和全球的需求过剩的背景下。据此可知，作者认为目前的油价上涨不会带来严重后果，没有必要为此担忧。A项与文章的意思相符，因此A项为正确答案。
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