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  3. Futurologists have not been very precise about how and how much digital media will change our lives. Most of comments have focus

Futurologists have not been very precise about how and how much digital media will change our lives. Most of comments have focus

admin2010-07-06  19
问题       Futurologists have not been very precise about how and how much digital media will change our lives. Most of comments have focused on the expectation that consumers will soon be able to use their TV or PC to shop, bank and order movies from their armchairs. Commentators envisage more dramatic change to everyday life. Nucholas Negroponte, director of MIT’s Media Lab, believes that a key development over the next five years will be the "personalization" of the computer, with wearable devices such as a wrist-mounted TV, computer and telephone. Peter Cochrane, head of research at British Telecom, looks further ahead, asking us to "imagine a virtual reality interface, with your visual context flooded by information from spectacle-mounted or contact lenses augmented by directional audio input, tactile gloves and prosthetic arms and fingers that will give you the sensation of touch, resistance and weight".
     Historically, enthusiasts for new technologies have usually been over-optimistic about the speed of change. Most new technologies take longer to be adopted by the general public than these enthusiast experts, although there have been exceptions: once they had reached critical mass, VCRs and mobile phones took off faster than most experts predicted. Arguably, everyday life in the advanced economies changed more between the 1880s and the 1930s than in the last fifty years or, possibly, the next. Nevertheless, it is valid to talk about a digital "revolution", since the extent of change is dramatic by many standards and digital technology is its biggest single driving force. Even if the enthusiasts overstate how quickly things will change, they may turn out to be right about the scale of that change.
     At this stage, no one knows how the digital revolution will develop. Although the technology itself is now becoming somewhat more predictable, exactly how, and how fast things will change will depend not Only on technological developments but also on the policies of key commercial and political players, especially in the US, Less predictable is how enthusiastically consumers will take to this technology on an everyday, mass market scale. Least predictable are the sociocultural and geopolitical responses: Will the digital revolution lead to greater international understanding or bitter rivalry? Will it encourage materialism and erode religious belief, or lead to religious backlash? Will it make people happier?  
What does the second paragraph imply?
选项 A、Some people arc over-enthusiastic-about the scale of change digital media will bring us.
B、The scale of change brought to us by the digital media will be dramatic.
C、Today’s changes will in no way match the changes taking place between the 1.880s and the 19g0s.
D、No one is sure to what extent digital technology will change The media.
答案B
解析 分析推理题。第二段指出人们对新技术带来的变化的速度常常过于乐观，但从变化规模的巨大来看，把数字技术看成一场革命还是可行的。就是说，人们对变化规模的看法应是正确的，故选B 由该段第一句可知A 不对，由第三句中的"possibly, the next"可否定C ，而D 在文章中根本没有提及。
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