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  3. The financial crisis took its toll and Britain slid into a severe slump in 2008 and 2009, one big worry was that the economy wou

The financial crisis took its toll and Britain slid into a severe slump in 2008 and 2009, one big worry was that the economy wou

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问题     The financial crisis took its toll and Britain slid into a severe slump in 2008 and 2009, one big worry was that the economy would also slip into deflation, exacerbating the difficulties of debt-laden households and firms. The scare was short-lived. Only a year since the recovery began, prices are surging rather than falling. Inflation, the scourge of Britain’s economy until the 1990s, seems to have returned.
    George Osborne has made many changes since he became chancellor of the exchequer last May but he has retained a central plank of economic policy: setting an inflation target and empowering the Bank of England to meet it. But the bank’s credibility is starting to be questioned as inflation keeps on exceeding the 2% target for consumer prices. Since the middle of 2006, undershoots have become the exception, with inflation above 2% in all but a few months. Throughout 2010 it was at or above 3%, most recently moving up to 3.3% in November.
    The inflationary relapse is set to get worse in early 2011. The main rate of VAT, a consumption tax, went up from 17.5% to 20% on January 4th. The rise is an essential part of Mr. Osborne’s plans to plug the budget deficit—but an unwelcome side-effect is that it will add to inflation. Because the tax increase is permanent, it is likely to be passed through to prices in full, whereas only about half the rise was passed on a year ago when VAT returned to its previously normal level of 17.5%, after being lowered to 15% to fight the recession.
    There are other inflationary forces at work, too, as Asia’s rapid economic growth stokes up commodity prices. Most food escapes VAT, but that will not spare consumers: global food prices have risen by 27% in the past year, according to The Economist’s commodity-price index. World oil prices have also jumped recently.
    That margin of spare capacity should persist this year since growth is likely to be lacklustre, not least because Mr. Osborne’s austerity measures include harsh spending cuts and other tax rises starting in April, as well as this month’s VAT increase. Although the economy has recovered more briskly than once expected, growing by 2.7% in the year to the third quarter of 2010, that pace will abate. The OBR is forecasting especially low growth in the first half of this year, and for GDP to rise by just 2.1% in 2011 as a whole—below its 2.4% estimate of the economy’s trend rate of growth.
    One worry is that inflation expectations have been rising. A household survey published by the Bank of England last month showed that people are expecting inflation of 3.9% over the next year, up from the 3.4% rate they predicted last August. But while business conditions remain tough and unemployment high it is difficult to see these elevated expectations actually leading to higher wages growth. Regular pay, which excludes bonuses, has picked up a bit but the most recent rate of 2.3% is still subdued by historical standards.
    The Bank of England may have lost some credibility of late, but it has not lost the argument about spare capacity. As a fierce fiscal contraction gets under way, the current ultra-loose monetary stance remains reasonable. If the economy performs more strongly this year than expected, that should be the spur to start tightening, by raising the base rate from its all-time low of 0.5%.
The first paragraph discusses that______.
选项 A、British economy has enjoyed a major plunge 2 or 3 years ago
B、British economy has suffered from deflation in 2008 and 2009
C、Britain is seemingly having a relapse of inflation
D、thanks to the economic recovery, the prices tend to surge in British Isles
答案C
解析 属主旨题。选项A以偏概全，只是第一段的部分观点，并不能总括该段大意，故选项A错误。选项B偷换概念，原文表示2008年和2009年，人们担心英国经济会滑向通货紧缩，选项B将这一担心转换为既成事实，故选项B错误。选项D犯了同选项A一样的错误，无法概括文章首段，故选项D错误。文章首段的主旨句是最后一句，即20世纪90年代之前，通货膨胀一直是英国经济的祸根，而今天它似乎又回来了，故选项C符合题意。
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