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  3. The price of oil has had an unnerving ability to blow up the world economy, and the Middle East has often provided the spark. Th

The price of oil has had an unnerving ability to blow up the world economy, and the Middle East has often provided the spark. Th

admin2019-06-26  99
问题     The price of oil has had an unnerving ability to blow up the world economy, and the Middle East has often provided the spark. The Arab oil embargo of 1973, the Iranian revolution in 1978-79 and Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990 are all painful reminders of how the region’s combustible mix of geopolitics and geology can wreak havoc. With protests cascading across Arabia, is the world in for another oil shock?
    There are good reasons to worry. The Middle East and North Africa produce more than one-third of the world’s oil. Libya’s turmoil shows that a revolution can quickly disrupt oil supply. Even while Muammar Qaddafi hangs on with delusional determination and Western countries debate whether to enforce a no-fly zone, Libya’s oil output has halved, as foreign workers flee and the country fragments. The spread of unrest across the region threatens wider disruption.
    The markets’ reaction has been surprisingly modest. The price of Brent crude jumped 15% as Libya’s violence flared up, reaching $120 a barrel on February 24th. But the promise of more production from Saudi Arabia pushed the price down again. It was $116 on March 2nd—20% higher than the beginning of the year, but well below the peaks of 2008. Most economists are sanguine: global growth might slow by a few tenths of a percentage point, they reckon, but not enough to jeopardise the rich world’s recovery.
    That glosses over two big risks. First, a serious supply disruption, or even the fear of it, could send the oil price soaring. Second, dearer oil could fuel inflation—and that might prompt a monetary clampdown that throttles the recovery. A lot will depend on the skill of central bankers.
    So far, the shocks to supply have been tiny. Libya’s turmoil has reduced global oil output by a mere 1%. In 1973 the figure was around 7.5%. Today’s oil market also has plenty of buffers. Governments have stockpiles, which they didn’t in 1973. Commercial oil stocks are more ample than they were when prices peaked in 2008. Saudi Arabia, the central bank of the oil market, technically has enough spare capacity to replace Libya, Algeria and a clutch of other small producers. And the Saudis have made clear that they are willing to pump.
    Yet more disruption cannot be ruled out. The oil industry is extremely complex: getting the right sort of oil to the right place at the right time is crucial. And then there is Saudi Arabia itself. The kingdom has many of the characteristics that have fuelled unrest elsewhere, including an army of disillusioned youths. Despite spending $36 billion so far buying off dissent, a repressive regime faces demands for reform. A whiff of instability would spread panic in the oil market.
    Even without a disruption to supply, prices are under pressure from a second source: the gradual dwindling of spare capacity. With the world economy growing strongly, oil demand is far outpacing increases in readily available supply. So any jitters from the Middle East will accelerate and exaggerate a price rise that was already on the way.
The difference between what happed in the 1970s and what is happening now is that ______.
选项 A、much more oil was produced back in the 1970s than today
B、microscopic control is much better nowadays than in 1970s
C、current oil market have cushions thanks to governments’ stockpiles
D、the oil situation enjoyed a more stability 40 years ago
答案C
解析 属细节题。选项A无中生有，脱离上下文，故选项A错误。选项B过于主观，无法从原文引申出来，故选项B错误。选项D属反向干扰，作者列举很多例子来说明过去的石油形势是由于地缘政治并不稳定造成的，故选项D错误。根据第五段的第三句“如今石油市场也还有足够的缓冲空间，各国政府也都有石油储备，在1973年却不是这样”，可以推测选项C符合题意。
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