首页
外语
计算机
考研
公务员
职业资格
财经
工程
司法
医学
专升本
自考
实用职业技能
登录
外语
Forecasting Methods There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. The method a forecaster choos
Forecasting Methods There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. The method a forecaster choos
admin
2012-07-30
59
问题
Forecasting Methods
There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. The method a forecaster chooses depends upon the experience of the forecaster, the amount of information available to the forecaster, the level of difficulty that the forecast situation presents, and the degree of accuracy or confidence needed in the forecast.
The first of these methods is the persistence method; the simplest way of producing a forecast. The persistence method assumes that the conditions at the time of the forecast will not change. For example, if it is sunny and 87 degree today, the persistence method predicts that it will be sunny and 87 degree tomorrow. If two inches of rain fell today, the persistence method would predict two inches of rain for tomorrow. However, if weather conditions change significantly from day to day, the persistence method usually breaks down and is not the best forecasting method to use.
The trends method involves determining the speed and direction of movement for fronts, high and low pressure centers, and areas of clouds and precipitation. Using this information, the forecaster can predict where he or she expects those features to be at some future time. For example, if a storm system is 1, 000 miles west of your location and moving to the east at 250 miles per day, suing the trends method you would predict it to arrive in your area in 4 days. The trends method works well when systems continue to move at the same speed in the same direction for a long period of time, if they slow down, speed up, change intensity, or change direction, the trends forecast will probably not work as well.
The climatology method is another simple way of producing a forecast. This method involves averaging weather statistics accumulated over man years to make the forecast. For example, if you were using the climatology method to predict the weather for new York City on July 4th, you would go through all the weather data that has been recorded for every July 4th and take an average. The climatology method only works well when the weather pattern is similar to that expected for the chosen time of year, if the pattern is quite unusual for the given time of year, the climatology method will often fail.
The analog method is a slightly more complicated method of producing a forecast. It involves examining today’s forecast scenario and remembering a day in the past when the weather scenario looked very similar (an analog). The forecaster would predict that the weather in this forecast will behave the same as it did in the past. The analog method is difficult to use because it is virtually impossible to find a predict analog. Various weather features rarely align themselves in the same locations they were in the previous time. Even small differences between the current time and the analog can lead to very different results.
It will be impossible to make weather forecast using the analog method______.
选项
A、when the current weather scenario differs from the analog
B、when the current weather scenario is the same as the analog
C、when the analog is over ten years old
D、when the analog is a simple repetition of the current weather scenario
答案
A
解析
最后一段的第五句和第六句提供了答案。Various weather features rarely align them—selves in the same locations they were in the previous time.不同的天气特征很少同时出现在与前次出现时一样的地点。
转载请注明原文地址:https://www.kaotiyun.com/show/3ZGd777K
本试题收录于:
职称英语综合类C级题库职称英语分类
0
职称英语综合类C级
职称英语
相关试题推荐
OlderVolcanicEruptionsVolcanoesweremoredestructiveinancienthistory,notbecausetheywerebigger,butbecausethec
OlderVolcanicEruptionsVolcanoesweremoredestructiveinancienthistory,notbecausetheywerebigger,butbecausethec
AthevolunteersdoBbecauseshedoesnothaveaweightproblemCbecausethelifetherecanbeveryboringDmakepeopleovere
AthevolunteersdoBbecauseshedoesnothaveaweightproblemCbecausethelifetherecanbeveryboringDmakepeopleovere
AthevolunteersdoBbecauseshedoesnothaveaweightproblemCbecausethelifetherecanbeveryboringDmakepeopleovere
AdifferentmediaBreportersCtheuser-friendlysizeD"real-time"newsEpackagesFreadersInthefuture,newspaperswillb
AdifferentmediaBreportersCtheuser-friendlysizeD"real-time"newsEpackagesFreadersTheEuropeannewspaperindustry
随机试题
钢管弯管后,测量壁厚减薄时应在弯头内弯处测厚。 ()
慢性肺心病患者血液检查结果有
多样化投资分散风险的风险管理策略行之有效的前提条件是()。
税收收入划分的原则中,()是以税基的宽窄为标准来划分中央与地方收入的。
形成中国园林发展中转折点的主要因素是()。
根据以下资料。回答下列问题。2012年末,安徽省户籍人口6902万人,比上年增加26万人。年末常住人口5988万人,比上年增加20万人,均保持平稳发展态势。2012年,全省常住人口全年出生人口77.7万人,死亡人口36.7万人。
论述近代两次中日战争对中国政治、经济和国际地位的影响
Everyoneknowsthattoomuchtimeinthesuncanexposeyoutoexcessiveultravioletradiation,whichcanleadtoskincancers.【
如下程序的输出结果是#includemain(){charch[2][5]={"6937","8254"},*p[2];inti,j,s=0;for(i=0;i
Youshouldspendabout20minutesonQuestions27-40whicharebasedonReadingPassage3below.Helium’sFutureUpintheAirA
最新回复
(
0
)