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  3. "The US economy is rapidly deteriorating," says Mr. Grannis. "The odds of a recession are now very high, perhaps by the end of t

"The US economy is rapidly deteriorating," says Mr. Grannis. "The odds of a recession are now very high, perhaps by the end of t

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问题     "The US economy is rapidly deteriorating," says Mr. Grannis. "The odds of a recession are now very high, perhaps by the end of the year. " There are already some signs that important pillars are weakening. Consumer confidence has fallen for the past two months, and the housing sector, which has been buoyant, is starting to sink. Corporate profits are falling.
    Some analysts are especially concerned over the sharp fall of commodity prices. They believe it represents the threat of deflation, or falling prices in general. While this may be good for consumers, it could cause a global slowdown "The Central Bank will have to act forcefully to arrest the deflationary forces," says Robert LaMorte, chairman of Behavioral Economics, a consulting firm in San Diego. But others counter that the Central Bank doesn’t need to intervene, and they argue it should wait to see real data before acting. "The fundamentals are better than the stock market reflects," says Peter Kretzmer, an economist at Nationsbanc Montgomery Securities. The president also tried to do his part to calm the markets, citing the strong job market and balanced budget. "We believe our fundamental economic policy is sound," he said. His comments echoed statements by Treasury Secretary in Washington.
    Some numbers do continue to reflect a strong economy. On September 11, the Conference Board released its index of leading indicators. The index rose 0. 4 percent, promoting the business organization to predict that the nation’s output should increase at a moderate pace for the rest of this year. The group sees little risk of recession in the near term.
    But what has changed is the global economy. Japan and the rest of Asia are in recession. The woes are spreading to Latin America. "I’m convinced that we are going to have a global economic recession," says Sung Won Sohn, chief economist at Norwest Corp. , a Minneapolis-based bank.
    Still, Fed watchers don’t think the Central Bank will act to try to save the world. "It’s inconceivable the Fed could make much difference in Asia, Russia, or Latin America," says Lyle Gramley, a former Fed governor.
    After the last stock market crash, the Federal Revenue acted quickly to provide liquidity to the markets and to lower interest rates. But the economy is in better shape this time. The banking sector is stronger and the financial markets have been able to respond to enormous trading volume.
Which of the following statements is TRUE?
选项 A、The index of leading indicators showed a slight increase.
B、The commodity prices are increasing a lot in US.
C、Some US analysts question the capability of US government.
D、US economy is developing rapidly.
答案A
解析 本题是细节题。做此类试题时要利用选项回到原文进行精确定位，然后再逐项对比。利用 A项的关键词index of leading indicators可定位至第三段第二三句，此处提到On September 11，the Conference Board released its index of leading indicators. The index rose 0. 4 percent(9月11日，世界大型企业联合会公布了先行经济指标指数。该指数上涨了0. 4％)，A项的内容与第三句属于同义替换，故答案选A。B项的干扰信息来自于第二段首句，该句提到Some analysts are especially concerned over the sharp fall of commodity prices(一些分析师特别关注商品价格的大幅下跌)，选项与原文的意思正好相反，属于正反混淆，故排除；C项在文中并未提及，属于无中生有，故排除；D项的干扰来自于第三段首句，该句提到Some numbers do continue to reflect a strong economy(有一些数字确实反应了强劲的经济发展)，rapidly篡改了原文的strong，而且与原文的意思正好相反，属于正反混淆，故排除。
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